What sets the C4SE models apart?
Major Project Construction
At C4SE we track major construction projects for each province. The provincial modelling system relies on the announcement of these major export-based projects scheduled for construction across the country to assist with the difficult task of forecasting investment expenditures as well as in determining future GDP and employment growth.
It is very difficult to predict investment, both its magnitude and timing. Investments in small provinces, in particular, are often large in relation to normal investment levels and cause the provinces to experience large swings in growth. The projects serve to provide assistance in projecting investment and economic growth.
A recent change to the C4SE provincial model forecast is that a new approach has been adopted to forecast immigration. An “optimal” immigration approach is used that chooses the amount of immigration needed to meet provincial labour force requirements.
This approach is implemented by adjusting immigration to keep a province's unemployment rate close to its normal unemployment rate thereby minimizing the costs of the excess demand or supply for workers. For more information on this approach please contact us.
Other characteristics of the model:
- Calibrated to Statistics Canada’s latest economic and demographic data
- Economic data employ a 2007 reference year
- Input-output coefficients in the models are based on the 2007 input-output tables
- Industry classification system used for the models is the NAICS – North American Industry Classification System.