Furthering the understanding of demographic and economic
change in Canada's provinces and sub-provincial regions.

Provincial Models


What sets the C4SE models apart?



  • Major Project Construction

    At C4SE we track major construction projects for each province. The provincial modelling system relies on the announcement of these major export-based projects scheduled for construction across the country to assist with the difficult task of forecasting investment expenditures as well as in determining future GDP and employment growth.

    It is very difficult to predict investment, both its magnitude and timing. Investments in small provinces, in particular, are often large in relation to normal investment levels and cause the provinces to experience large swings in growth. The projects serve to provide assistance in projecting investment and economic growth.


  • Optimal Immigration

    A recent change to the C4SE provincial model forecast is that a new approach has been adopted to forecast immigration. An “optimal” immigration approach is used that chooses the amount of immigration needed to meet provincial labour force requirements.

    This approach is implemented by adjusting immigration to keep a province's unemployment rate close to its normal unemployment rate thereby minimizing the costs of the excess demand or supply for workers. For more information on this approach please contact us.

Other characteristics of the model:

  • Calibrated to Statistics Canada’s latest economic and demographic data
  • Economic data employ a 2007 reference year
  • Input-output coefficients in the models are based on the 2007 input-output tables
  • Industry classification system used for the models is the NAICS – North American Industry Classification System.

NAICS Industries:

Production, employment, and investment decisions are modelled for each of the aggregate industries (2-digit NAICS categories). GDP is modelled for the more detailed categories. The coverage of the detailed categories differs across provinces. Variations occur mainly in the dominant manufacturing categories of a province. The estimates of real GDP by industry are computed using employment and output per employee by industry. Provincial data on industry GDP per employee are assumed to hold across the regions and applied to regional employment data to obtain estimates of GDP by industry.